Russia’s population is declining even as it emerges from the worst of the Covid-19 epidemic, underlining the government’s difficulties in reversing the slump as President Vladimir Putin wages war in Ukraine.

Deaths exceeded births by 311,200 people in the first four months of this year, compared with 304,500 a year earlier, data published Friday by the Federal Statistics Service show, adding to a decline in migration to Russia.

“Demography is the first task” for the country, Putin told a group of young Russians on Thursday. “We should have more people and they should be healthy.”

The president has warned for years of a threat to Russia’s economic and geopolitical future from the sliding population. He has sought to boost the birth rate by offering mortgage subsidies to families and expanding a program of “maternal capital” payments to women who have children.

The Covid pandemic exacerbated the crisis as Russia suffered among the world’s highest fatalities that helped cut average life expectancy to levels seen a decade ago.

While the epidemic in Russia has receded from its peak, there’s no sign of a turnaround in population decline. There were 700,000 fewer Russians at the start of this year than at the beginning of 2021, the statistics service reported.

Migration Declines

Russia’s difficulties are being intensified by falling migration amid unprecedented international sanctions on its economy. A separate report by the statistics service last week showed 51,000 more people left the country than arrived in the first quarter, the first time that’s happened in at least eight years.

“The special operation and the imposed sanctions have an adverse effect on migration flows,” said Vera Karpova, a demographer at Moscow State University.

Putin invoked Peter the Great’s 18th century conquest of territory from Sweden in the 21-year-long Great Northern War to justify his invasion during Thursday’s meeting. He told young entrepreneurs in Moscow that the czar had reclaimed Russian land and that “it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well” in Ukraine, where the Kremlin is moving to annex territory seized by its forces.

While it’s too early to say what long-term impact Russia’s war in Ukraine may have, western officials estimate at least 15,000 Russian troops have died in the fighting so far, while Ukraine claims the number is double that. Russia’s Defense Ministry hasn’t commented on combat deaths in what it calls the “special military operation” in Ukraine since March 25, when it said 1,351 had been killed.

Russia isn’t reporting anything about Russians missing in Ukraine, said Igor Efremov, researcher at the International Laboratory of Demography and Human Capital at the Yegor Gaidar Institute in Moscow. “I think many of them died, but these deaths will no longer be included in official demographic statistics.”

Source:
courtesy of BLOOMBERG

by Benjamin Harvey

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