A brewing storm east of Mindanao, which entered the country’s area of responsibility yesterday morning, may make a landfall over Luzon by weekend, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

PAGASA weather forecaster Benison Estareja said the low-pressure area (LPA), estimated at 990 kilometers east of Surigao City in Surigaodel Norte before Tuesday noon, has a high probability of intensifying into a tropical depression within 24 to 48 hours.

He said the outer cloud bands of the LPA would bring cloudy skies with moderate to occasional heavy rains and thunderstorms over Biliran, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, Southern Leyte, Agusandel Norte, Agusan del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur this Wednesday.

PAGASA advised residents in these areas to be on alert for possible floods and landslides due to the LPA.

However, Estareja said fair weather condition, except for some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms, will prevail over Metro Manila today (Oct. 12) until Thursday (Oct. 13).

Likewise, cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms will be experienced over Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, La Union, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, ZamboangaSibugay, North Cotabato, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Compostela Valley, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental and Davao Oriental.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of the country.

Estareja explained that the LPA will be almost stationary within the next 24 hours because of the ridge of high pressure area (HPA) that is blocking its path.

This stationary movement will allow the LPA to draw fuel from the sea, an ingredient for its intensification into a tropical depression, he pointed out.

PAGASA-Weather Division’s Marine Meteorological Services Section Chief Rene Paciente said the LPA could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday (Oct. 12-13), and make landfall over Southern or Northern Luzon by Saturday or Sunday.

If it makes landfall over Aurora or Quezon provinces, its outer circulation could also affect Metro Manila. But it will have no direct effect over Metro Manila if it makes landfall over Northern Luzon, he explained.

Should it intensify into a tropical depression, it will be given a local name of “Karen,” the 11th cyclone to form or enter the country’s area of responsibility this year and second this month. “Julian”was the first storm to enter the country’s vicinity this month.

Source:
courtesy of MANILA BULLETIN

by Ellalyn De Vera

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