Reputations can change quickly at major international tournaments and Belgium manager Marc Wilmots might be scratching his head given the extraordinary turnaround of his side's status over the past week.

Belgium were essentially written off following their opening Euro 2016 fixture, a 2-0 defeat to an unfancied Italian side who nevertheless outclassed them tactically and hit them on the counter-attack.

Since then, though, Belgium have won three matches in a row, scoring eight unanswered goals in the process. They start the quarterfinals as third-favourites to win the competition, behind hosts France and world champions Germany.

Amazingly, the defeat to Italy explains that status as much as the three victories. The result put the Italians in charge of Group E and meant Belgium had little chance of finishing first, which unwittingly put Wilmots' side into the favourable half of the draw.

They will avoid France, Italy and Germany until the final and, instead, their passage will involve Hungary, Wales and then either Poland or Portugal, should they progress to the semifinal. Things, somehow, have worked out nicely for Belgium.

Wilmots himself, however, deserves little credit. His tactical naivety was obvious against Italy, when Belgium appeared the archetypical "less than the sum of their parts" and slumped to a disappointing defeat.

"Italy specifically played on the counter-attack," Wilmots said after the game. "They did not play real football and when faced with everyone sitting back, it becomes difficult."

Wilmots acted like counter-attacking was somehow cheating that night but, since then, whereas other teams have repeatedly encountered defensive-minded opposition, Belgium have been fortunate to face opponents who played into their hands.

Republic of Ireland were ludicrously open between the lines and got ripped apart in a 3-0 defeat, as their defence was simply unable to deal with Belgium's speed. Sweden, meanwhile, needed to win so they pushed forwards and dominated possession. "They were obliged to open up," Wilmots said. "And if you do that against us, you will be punished."

Hungary were also a favourable opponent, as one of the few underdogs in the competition to play open football. Belgium went ahead through a set piece and, as Hungary chased the game, Wilmots' men counter-attacked rapidly to add three more goals and record a 4-0 win, the biggest margin of victory in the competition so far.

Yet despite those results, Belgium lack any type of cohesion. Their defensive situation has been bizarre, not helped by a pre-tournament injury to captain Vincent Kompany, which convinced Wilmots to abandon his plan of using Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld, the Tottenham centre-back pairing, as full-backs.

Or rather, he half-abandoned it. Alderweireld was moved centrally and publicly told to be the defence's leader, but Vertonghen has continued on the left, with Thomas Vermaelen used as the left-sided centre-back.

It would surely make sense, given Vermaelen is also left-footed and has more experience playing out wide, to play Vertonghen at centre-back and reunite the Spurs duo, but Wilmots has not done this. Vermaelen's suspension for the quarterfinal clash against Wales, however, may force Wilmots to move Vertonghen inside anyway and introduce Jordan Lukaku, a recognised -- if inexperienced -- left-back.

Without the ball, Belgium lack compactness. The forwards tend to half-heartedly press and the defenders hold an oddly deep line, considering the individual players generally like defending high up the pitch. This leaves central midfielders Radja Nainggolan and Axel Witsel with too much space to cover even for their excellent energy levels.

However, while they may offer little when opponents have possession, individually the front four players are arguably the best attacking quartet in the tournament.

Kevin De Bruyne has been outstanding from his prominent No. 10 role, eternally efficient with his use of possession, driving forward repeatedly and also providing a goal threat. But even he was upstaged by Eden Hazard against Hungary.

The Belgian captain turned in one of the performances of the tournament, dribbling past opponents no fewer than 10 times and capping his display with a superb solo goal. And that's what it's all about for Belgium: individuals showing their quality, rather than teammates combining coherently.

Centre-forward Romelu Lukaku has also excelled at times. Opposition centre-backs hate facing a player with his strength and pace and against Ireland he was outstanding. But his poor first touch is a problem, and he doesn't hold up possession well to link with onrushing midfielders.

Meanwhile, the right-sided attacking role is filled by either Dries Mertens or Yannick Carrasco, both of whom are quick and tactically disciplined players, who provide balance by staying wider than Hazard does on the opposite flank.

It's not entirely clear who provides the tactical thinking for Belgium. Beyond Wilmots, assistant coach Vital Borkelmens isn't renowned as a great footballing thinker, although having been a left-back in his club days, he can at least instruct Belgium's makeshift full-backs on positioning.

There are, broadly, two types of managers at the international level: Tacticians like Antonio Conte or man-managers like Vicente del Bosque. Wilmots seems to be neither, in that he lacks strategic insight but seemingly does not command the respect of his players either, amid reports of dressing-room arguments following the Italy defeat.

The contrast with Belgium's quarterfinal opponents is significant. Welsh manager Chris Coleman has created a motivated, harmonious unit with great mental strength that, more surprisingly, have excelled tactically, particularly during qualification. Indeed, among his most impressive achievements was masterminding a 1-0 home victory over Belgium, as well as a 0-0 draw away from home.

"That was when we stepped our game up," Coleman said. "Against a top team it's about holding your nerve and not panicking if you haven't seen the ball for a few minutes. Then when you get it, you cannot give it back to them, you have to attack."

Wales will sit deep to prevent Belgium from counter-attacking and then feed Bale quickly to allow him to break. Surely Wilmots will understand the need to deny Wales' star man space, which might involve telling his full-backs to remain deep; Bale showed his ability to drift wide decisively in the 1-0 victory over Northern Ireland.

This might be a game for individual brilliance and, in Hazard and De Bruyne, Belgium boast two players to rival Bale in their ability to provide sensational moments. But Wales are arguably the more cohesive side and in a position to play this game reactively, adjusting their shape to exploit Belgium's weaknesses. The tournament might be wide open, but Wilmots must ensure Belgium are not.

Source:
courtesy of ESPNFC

by Michael Cox

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