The People's Action Party Government will "almost certainly" pay a "political price" over the corruption probe involving Transport Minister S Iswaran, and how it responds to the outcome and manages public perception will be critical to restoring people's trust and confidence, said analysts on Wednesday (July 12).

While it is too soon to tell if the case would have any impact on the next General Election (GE), the analysts added that it could make it "far harder" for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to hand over the reins sooner rather than later — although having Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong address the media on the case indicates Mr Lee's commitment to ensure the leadership transition continues.

The Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) revealed on Wednesday morning that Mr Iswaran was assisting investigation into a case which the agency has uncovered.

Mr Lee said that he had been briefed by the CPIB director, and that he had asked Mr Iswaran to take a leave of absence until the investigations are completed.

That same afternoon, Mr Wong provided more details on the probe, saying that it stemmed from an unrelated investigation on a separate matter.

TOO EARLY TO TELL IMPACT ON PAP

Associate Professor Eugene Tan from the Singapore Management University's School of Law said that it is “not meaningful to speculate” the full impact this investigation will have on the PAP as it has just started.

Nonetheless, he believes that the investigations will cast doubt on the PAP's standards of integrity — a "political price" the party "almost certainly" has to pay.

"What is clear is that this is a development that the Government would rather not have to deal with. How it responds to the outcome and how well it manages public perceptions matter immensely as part of the overall effort at damage control and to rebuild trust and confidence," he said.

The past few weeks have seen several PAP political office holders involved in controversies.

The CPIB had recently investigated the rental of two bungalows at Ridout Road by Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam and Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, following allegations made online. Both ministers were cleared of any wrongdoing.

Earlier this week, Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin also apologised for using "unparliamentary language" in his reaction to a speech made by Workers' Party Member of Parliament Jamus Lim.

Without any clarity on when the next GE will be held, it is too early to determine whether these incidents will “still be top of mind when the public next goes to the polls”, said Ms Nydia Ngiow, managing director of advisory firm BowerGroupAsia Singapore.

The next GE must be called by November 2025. With more than two years till then, senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Gillian Koh said that there is plenty of time for PAP to “get the house in order”.

“No party in power calls a GE unless it is ready, if it can help it,” she added.

However, Dr Felix Tan, a political analyst from the Nanyang Technological University, said this incident will likely come to the fore then, as it contrasts with the PAP’s pledge of running a “good, clean and honest” Government.

West Coast Group Representation Constituency, where Mr Iswaran is anchor minister, obtained the PAP’s narrowest win at the 2020 General Election. The PAP won 51.68 per cent of the vote over a Progress Singapore Party team led by its then secretary-general Tan Cheng Bock.

SIGNIFICANCE OF ISWARAN’S LEAVE OF ABSENCE, PM LEE GOING PUBLIC WITH PROBE

The last time that a minister was instructed to take leave of absence amid a graft probe was almost 40 years ago.

In 1986, then National Development Minister Teh Cheang Wan was investigated by the CPIB for allegedly accepting two bribes totalling S$1 million in return for helping two property developers retain and acquire pieces of land for development.

Teh had been placed under leave of absence during the course of the investigations, but he died by suicide before he could be formally charged in court.

Assoc Prof Tan said that while Mr Iswaran is innocent until proven guilty, being put on leave of absence is “very serious”.

“It suggests that there is preliminary credible evidence that laws may have been broken,” he said, noting that further investigations are needed.

The leave of absence is also to avoid investigations being compromised should Mr Iswaran continue to exercise his powers and duties.

“It is proper for Mr Lee to put him on leave of absence to uphold the integrity of the ongoing investigations,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

Agreeing, Dr Koh said that having Mr Iswaran step aside from his role and the influence it carries will give the public additional assurance as to how the investigations are handled.

“If the minister had to step aside in the PM’s judgement after being presented the prima facie case by the CPIB to conduct in-depth investigation, there is no way to avoid a public statement on it,” she said.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CPIB PROBE ON ISWARAN AND RIDOUT ROAD REVIEW

DPM Wong on Wednesday stated that CPIB's recent investigations into the rental of two bungalows at Ridout Road by two other government ministers and the latest case are “very different”.

For the Ridout Road case, there were allegations made online and questions raised by the public, which led the two ministers involved to ask for an independent review of the matter, which was why they were not put on leave of absence.

In contrast, the case involving Mr Iswaran has been completely driven by CPIB from the beginning with no public complaints.

Dr Koh said that the Ridout Road case would have played out very much like the current case involving Mr Iswaran had there been evidence of any wrongdoing.

“If CPIB felt there was a prima facie case after initial investigations, we can be confident that it would escalate the matter to the status of the current case of Minister Iswaran,” she said.

“In the event, CPIB found no wrongdoing in the Ridout case.”

Agreeing, Assoc Prof Tan said that in the Ridout Road case, there was “no credible evidence” at any stage of the CPIB investigations that necessitated the two ministers involved to be put on leave of absence.

“The bare allegations meant that the ministers were not substantively involved in the preliminary investigations,” he said.

However, for the case involving Mr Iswaran, Assoc Prof Tan said that it appears that the preliminary investigation suggested the necessity of a full and open investigation.

“CPIB would have provided Mr Lee with a summary of the evidence CPIB had gathered to seek permission for an open investigation (and) Mr Lee was satisfied that there were sufficient grounds to do so,” he said. “Such an investigation could not be kept secret.”

IMPACT ON SUCCESSION PLANS

On why Mr Wong was privy to the case and had addressed the media on Wednesday, Dr Koh said that considering his role as Mr Lee’s deputy and successor, and the 4G leader, it is reasonable that he would be kept apprised.

“(Mr Wong) shares responsibility for keeping (the) Government going, upholding the core value system of government and the state of his bench of leaders with the Prime Minister, even if the latter might take the final decision on various matters pertaining to Government, policy and party,” she said.

While Mr Lee has not made public when he will hand over the reins to Mr Wong, Ms Ngiow believes that the recent events might delay his plans for retirement, as “it could be far harder for Mr Lee to hand over the reins at this stage while assuaging concerns of the public that governance will continue as usual”.

Still, she pointed out: “Mr Wong’s front-facing position (in the handling of the graft probe) not only places him as the face of the Cabinet but also shows PM Lee’s commitment to ensuring the leadership transition continues — even if delayed — despite the scandal."

Source:
courtesy of TODAY

by BY JUSTIN ONG BY LORAINE LEE

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